Modified quality, short-term reversal, and value investing
Xiaoquan Jiang, Xiaomeng Lu

We introduce two innovative investment strategies: modified quality (𝑀⁢𝑄) and modified cheapness (𝑀⁢𝐶) investing. Both strategies significantly outperform traditional quality, short-term reversal, and value investing approaches. The 𝑀⁢𝑄 strategy identifies market-validated quality, while 𝑀⁢𝐶 exploits short-term reversals and value signals, filtering out undervalued but fundamentally weak firms. Superior performance stems from blending fundamental information with market perceptions, incorporating industry effects, and market-timing dynamics. Transaction cost analysis reveals that realistic costs substantially narrow return spreads, underscoring the importance of effective cost management.
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Debt capacity and the ability to service the public debt: A discerning look at the credit quality of Uncle Sam
Don Chance

This paper is a case study credit analysis of the U.S. government. It finds that the financial condition of the government is not nearly what is typically believed. It first shows that the debt owed to entities that are not also responsible for it is only about a fourth of the stated debt. Furthermore, the cash flows available to service the debt, the assets owned by the government, and the tremendously underappreciated amount of national wealth that backs the debt reveals a much more accurate picture of the federal fiscal condition. This paper also shows why the focus on debt-to-GDP is so misleading.
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CEO social media activity and insider trading
Zhichuan Li (Frank), Claire Y. C. Liang, Zhenyang Tang

This article studies the relationship between CEOs’ social media activity and their insider trading behavior. Drawing on psychological evidence linking online activity to risk-taking, we find that active CEOs on social media exhibit higher risk preferences and engage more in insider trading—particularly in terms of incidence, intensity, and profitability. The effects are primarily driven by insider buys (rather than sells), which are more likely to involve material non-public information, and such opportunistic trades may increase firm reputational risk. Further analysis reveals that certain corporate governance mechanisms, such as blackout policies and compensation structures, help mitigate the negative impact.
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Mutual fund director compensation
John Adams, Sattar Mansi, Takeshi Nishikawa

We examine director compensation using a large sample of hand-compiled U.S. mutual fund data. We find that director compensation is positively correlated with observable productive characteristics—workload, experience, and demographics—that capture the benefits from the directors’ monitoring effort. We also find that family-wide policies contribute to higher director pay. However, we find no evidence that more lucrative director compensation is associated with fund performance or fees. These findings lend empirical support to the idea that mutual fund directors may play more of an administrative or compliance role.
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Character and creditworthiness: Unveiling the role of job titles in peer-to-peer lending
Zagdbazar Davaadorj, Bolortuya Enkhtaivan, Wenling Lu

Using data from the Prosper lending platform, we examine the influence of job-based trust on credit market dynamics. We find that the generalized trust implied by borrowers’ job titles, as a reflection of individuals’ ethical and integrity standards in professionals, positively affects listing and loan performance. Our findings reveal that borrowers in highly trusted professions are more likely to experience successful loan listings and yield higher profits for lenders. These results are robust to several endogeneity checks. Overall, results suggest that borrowers’ occupations play an important role as a proxy for character and creditworthiness, and contain valuable private information about borrowers.
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ETF ownership and the transmission of monetary policy
Meredith E. Rhodes, Austin H. Hill-Kleespie

This paper examines whether ETFs alter monetary policy transmission to equity markets. Using orthogonalized monetary policy surprises across 101 FOMC meetings (2012–2023), we document that broad market ETF ownership creates asymmetric transmission effects, amplifying returns to expansionary surprises (rate cuts) while dampening responses to contractionary surprises (rate hikes). We find evidence of information transmission from ETFs to underlying markets only following expansionary surprises. Rate cuts create larger demand shocks for ETFs than underlying stocks, increasing ETF premiums that trigger share creation activity. This generates buying pressure on underlying stocks that transmits information from ETFs proportional to their ETF ownership.
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Understanding the effects on corporate performance of investments in wealth management products
Shao-Chieh Hsueh, Paresh Kumar Narayan, Shuoxun Zhang

We evaluate how purchases of wealth management products (WMPs) influence the performance of Chinese nonfinancial listed companies. Our main finding is that purchasing WMPs enhances firm performance, but the relation shows an inverted U-shape: When WMP investment exceeds 62.57% of total assets, its positive effects diminish and ultimately harm performance. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the performance gains are concentrated among non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), whereas state-owned enterprises (SOEs) experience no significant benefits or even negative effects. Furthermore, the positive impact of WMPs is more pronounced in firms with higher leverage, abundant cash holdings, or lower top-shareholder concentration.
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Insider Trading as a Compensation Mechanism
Jiawei Chen, Caleb M. Houston, Benjamin Jansen

We find evidence that insiders at resource constrained firms trade more often and in patterns indicating the use of private information. Our findings are driven by insider sales relative to cash-based compensation. This indicates that when compensation is not directly tied to firm value, insiders are more likely to trade opportunistically, even if their trade transmits a negative market signal. Insiders also realize significant abnormal returns following transactions at resource constrained firms, indicating that insiders are trading with private information and consistently profiting. Overall, these results suggest that insiders at resource constrained firms utilize insider trading to supplement their compensation.
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Success or failure? Managerial ability and firm emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings
Miftah Zikri, Syed Shams, Afzalur Rashid, Kristina Minnick

This study investigates the impact of managerial ability on the likelihood of firms emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Drawing on a sample of 1,054 U.S. bankrupt firms, we uncover a counterintuitive dynamic: firms led by high-ability managers are significantly less likely to emerge successfully. This finding persists even after controlling for firm characteristics, governance mechanisms, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory events, and emergence characteristics. Further analyses indicate that the CEO’s expertise is crucial in increasing the likelihood of firm emergence, rather than managerial ability alone. We also find that firms retaining incumbent managers with low but ostensibly “non-replaceable” ability consistently fail to restructure effectively. In contrast, introducing new managers with early replacement can mitigate the likelihood of the firm emerging from bankruptcy. Overall, our results highlight the complex and context-dependent influence of managerial ability during financial distress, revealing the success and failure of bankrupt firms in the bankruptcy Chapter 11 recovery process.
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Price clustering and the informational efficiency of stock prices
Ahmed Baig, Benjamin Blau, Todd Griffith, Nasim Sabah

We examine whether stock price clustering on round pricing increments leads to less efficient stock prices. In panel data tests, we find a positive association between price clustering and market inefficiency. To draw stronger causal inferences, we use the 2016 US Securities and Exchange Tick Size Pilot Program, which exogenously imposed price clustering on a group of treatment stocks. A difference-in-differences analysis shows that relative to control stocks, treatment stocks became less efficient during the Pilot period. We also find a reversal effect upon the conclusion of the Pilot. These results suggest that causality flows from price clustering to market inefficiency.
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Industrial policy conflicts and their impact on analysts’ forecast accuracy and behavior
Shenwei Mo, Xiaoyun Gong, Xiaofeng Quan, Joseph H. Zhang

Policy conflicts can confuse and disrupt information interpretation in capital markets. This study finds that earnings forecast dispersion rises and accuracy declines when central and local government policies conflict. Effects are stronger for non-local analysts, firms in low fiscal autonomy regions, and state-owned enterprises. Additional analyses indicate that the findings are linked to both firm-level and industry-level uncertainty and are primarily driven by the “effect uncertainty” surrounding policy implementation. Analysts respond by increasing on-site visits, lengthening reports, and issuing more frequent revisions. Altogether, this article highlights the unintended consequences of government policy on the quality and characteristics of analysts’ forecasts.
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Fueling regional economic prosperity: The role of P2P lending in micro-firms and small businesses
Pankaj Kumar Maskara, Kershen Huang

We examine the role of peer-to-peer (P2P) financing in fostering economic prosperity by contributing to the growth of micro- and small businesses. Zip codes with higher P2P activity exhibit larger reductions in unemployment, higher per-capita income growth, and increased business establishments. This is especially true for areas with higher levels of P2P loans intended to meet the needs of small businesses. Consistently, repeat P2P business borrowers show greater financial stability by achieving higher income, improved credit ratings, lower spreads, and better repayment outcomes. Our findings highlight an important channel through which P2P financing supports entrepreneurship and broader economic well-being.
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